Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026: Picks, Sleepers, and Our Betting Card

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The pre-tournament narrative was Scheffler vs. McIlroy vs. the field. Then Daniel Berger walked in with a broken finger and a 9-under 63 and rewrote the script.

That's golf, baby.

Here's where we stand after Round 1, who we like going forward, and where we'd put money if our bookie accepted golf bets (he does, we checked).

The Leaderboard After Round 1

Our Picks to Win

Pick #1: Scottie Scheffler

Why: Two-time API champion. Top 20 in every strokes-gained category. Knows Bay Hill like he knows his own backyard. Even if Round 1 wasn't his best, Scheffler has the talent and the track record to post three more rounds in the mid-60s and win this thing going away. He's the best player in the world for a reason, and that reason shows up on the weekend.

The risk: Approach shots — he's 57th on Tour in strokes gained: approach. At a course where iron play matters, that's a concern.

Pick #2: Collin Morikawa

Why: Already at 6-under and his iron play is made for Bay Hill's firm greens. When Morikawa's hitting it close, the putter just needs to be average. And he's been better than average lately.

The risk: The putter has always been the question mark. If the greens speed up over the weekend (they will), his putting nerves will be tested.

Our Sleepers

Ludvig Åberg (6-under after R1)

The young Swede is playing free. New Scotty Cameron putter in the bag, first player to use the Model Local Rule G-9 (backup driver head), and zero expectations from the golf-betting public. At +2200 pre-tournament, he was already interesting. At 6-under through 18 holes, he's downright dangerous.

Why we love him: Åberg's ball speed and driving distance mean the par 5s are birdie holes. And at Bay Hill, the par 5s (4, 6, 12, 16) are where you separate yourself. If his new putter is even 10% better than what he was rolling before, watch out.

Tommy Fleetwood

Why: The Englishman loves Florida golf. Flat terrain, firm conditions, the kind of precision-over-power tracks where his ball-striking shines. He's been quietly consistent all season and keeps showing up on the first page of leaderboards without anyone writing a headline about it.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500)

U.S. Open champion who thrives on courses that demand accuracy over distance. Bay Hill's narrow fairways and firm greens are built for his game. If the wind picks up on the weekend — and in Central Florida in March, it usually does — Fitzpatrick's ability to control trajectory becomes a weapon.

The Berger Question

Let's address the elephant in the room. Daniel Berger shot 63. With a broken finger. That's incredible.

But.

Three more rounds is 54 more holes. That's roughly 220 more full swings. On a finger that "has good days and bad days." Thursday was a great day. The question is whether Saturday afternoon, with the tournament on the line and the adrenaline spiking on the 16-17-18 stretch, will also be a great day.

We love the story. We love the round. We're not betting the house on it.

Our Berger play: Top-10 finish. That's the value bet. He clearly has the game this week, and even if the finger acts up over the weekend, his R1 cushion is large enough that a couple of 70s still gets him a strong finish.

Prop Bets We Like

Hole-in-One on 17: YES

At 221 yards, the 17th is a mid-iron for the pros with a green just big enough to hold a well-struck shot. The par 3s at Bay Hill produce aces more often than you'd think, and with the field size and four rounds of attempts, the math favors at least one.

Winning Score Over/Under 16-under

Take the under. Bay Hill firms up over the weekend, the greens get faster, and the closing stretch gets more penalizing as the pressure builds. A 63 in Round 1 is spectacular, but the winning score here is typically in the 12-16 under range. We like under 16.

Top-5 Finish: Ludvig Åberg

At current live odds, Åberg for a top-5 is the best value on the board. He's already 6-under, he's hitting it miles, and he plays with the kind of fearless aggression that Bay Hill's par 5s reward.

Our Official Betting Card

The Bottom Line

This is shaping up to be one of the best Arnold Palmer Invitationals in years. You've got the defending world #1 chasing a three-peat, a comeback kid with a broken finger and a 63, a Swedish bomber with new gear, and Rory McIlroy looking to build momentum heading into the Masters.

All of it happening 20 minutes from your house.

Turn on the TV. Open the Bet Calculator. Crack a beer. Enjoy the King's tournament.

updatedAt: "2026-03-15"

More Arnold Palmer Invitational Coverage

• Arnold Palmer Invitational Weekend Golfer's Guide — the full preview
• Bay Hill Hole-by-Hole Guide — what the pros know that you don't
• Bet Calculator — run the numbers
• The Players Championship Preview — next week at TPC Sawgrass