Players Championship 2026: Picks, Sleepers, and the Guy Who's Going to Break Your Heart on 17

The Players Championship is next week. $25 million purse. The strongest field in golf. TPC Sawgrass, where Pete Dye built a course specifically designed to ruin elite golfers' afternoons.

Let's talk about who's winning this thing.

(Standard disclaimer: we're weekend golfers with opinions, not financial advisors. Bet what you can afford to lose, which for most of us is about the same as what we lose in golf balls per round.)

The Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+500)

The case for: He won this tournament back-to-back in 2023 and 2024 at -17 and -20. He's the No. 1 player in the world. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, tee-to-green, and approach — the three stats that matter most at TPC Sawgrass. His iron play is the best on Tour by a significant margin.

The case against: He didn't win here last year (McIlroy did, in a playoff). No one has won The Players three times. And he's on a four-tournament losing streak heading in — by his standards, a cold stretch. The question is whether that's regression or just the variance of a 123-player field.

Our take: At +500, Scheffler is actually better value than when we first published this guide. You're getting the best player in the world at 5-to-1 on a course he's dominated. Top-5 or top-10 is still the sharper play, but the outright number has gotten interesting.

The Contenders

Rory McIlroy (+1600)

The defending champion. Won last year in a playoff at -12, which was a grind-it-out, survive-the-weekend kind of victory. That's actually encouraging — it showed McIlroy can win ugly at Sawgrass, not just when everything's clicking.

Updated: Rory withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, which has pushed his odds from +800 to +1600. If it's a precautionary rest and not a real injury, 16-to-1 on the defending champion is absurd value. If the withdrawal signals something more serious, fade him entirely.

Best bet: Monitor the practice round reports Tuesday-Wednesday. If he's hitting full shots and looking comfortable, +1600 outright is the best value on the board. If there's any hint of limited practice, shift to Fleetwood or Schauffele.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)

The Englishman is having a season. His approach play ranks in the top 10 on Tour, his Bermuda grass putting has improved dramatically, and he's got the kind of game — precise irons, steady nerves, excellent scrambling — that TPC Sawgrass rewards.

Fleetwood has never won The Players, but he's consistently competitive in big-field, big-moment events. At 18-1, there's genuine value here.

Best bet: Top-10 finish. He's been knocking on the door all season.

Collin Morikawa (+3200)

Two major championships and the most technically precise iron game on Tour not named Scheffler. Morikawa's approach play is surgical, and that's the single most important stat at TPC Sawgrass. The question is always his putting — if the flat stick cooperates on Bermuda greens, he's a serious threat.

Best bet: Each-way at +3200. If his putter shows up, he wins. If it doesn't, he still makes the cut and contends.

Xander Schauffele (+2500)

After a rare missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open to start 2026, Schauffele has improved in every start since, including a T-7 at Riviera. The trajectory is pointing up at exactly the right time. His game is perfectly suited for Sawgrass — elite approach play, strong bogey avoidance, steady under pressure. And with the 2024 PGA Championship in his pocket, the "can't close" narrative is dead.

Best bet: Top-5 at solid odds. He's going to be on the leaderboard Sunday. The form is trending the right direction.

The Sleepers

Si Woo Kim (+3200)

Won here in 2017 at age 21 when he was 300th in the world rankings. Nobody saw it coming, and that's kind of his thing. Kim plays TPC Sawgrass with house money — he's already proven he can win here, which removes the mental barrier that trips up other players on the closing stretch.

At 32-1, Kim is a golfer who's won this tournament playing well below his best odds. Worth a dart.

Russell Henley (+3300)

Here's a name casual fans won't know but the betting market respects. Henley's approach play is consistently top-15 on Tour, he's a Florida golfer who knows Bermuda greens, and his accuracy off the tee fits the tight fairways at Sawgrass. He doesn't have the star power, but he has the game.

Ben Griffin (+3300)

Young, hungry, and riding form. Griffin has been one of the most improved players on Tour in 2026, and his price is still reflecting last year's expectations rather than this year's performance. The kind of player who could show up on the leaderboard Thursday morning and scare the big names all weekend.

Justin Rose (+3600)

The old man at the party, but don't sleep on course knowledge. Rose has been playing TPC Sawgrass for over two decades. He knows every slope, every wind pattern, every bail-out spot. And his iron play, while not what it was in his prime, is still good enough to compete on a course that rewards precision over power.

At 36-1, you're betting on experience and course knowledge at a venue where those things matter more than almost anywhere else.

The Longshot That'll Break Your Heart

Brooks Koepka (+8000)

Five majors. First year back on the PGA Tour after LIV. The crowds will be electric for or against him, and Koepka has always fed off energy — positive or negative.

At 80-1, you're getting a five-time major champion who thrives in big-field, big-stage events. The question is fitness, form, and whether the PGA Tour competitive rhythm has returned. But if there's a moment where Koepka stripes a 7-iron on 17, watches it land on the island green, and gives the crowd that stone-cold stare — you'll wish you had the ticket.

He probably won't win. But at 80-1, "probably won't" is the entire point of a longshot.

Prop Bets Worth Your Attention

Will There Be a Hole-in-One on 17?

This is a fun one. Odds are typically around +200 to +300 for the tournament, and it happens more often than you'd think. 123 players, 4 rounds, 137 yards. That's 492 shots at the island green (before cuts reduce the field). Ryan Fox aced it in 2023.

Winning Score Over/Under

The line is typically set around -14.5 to -15.5. Weather is the X-factor. If the wind stays down, someone's going deep — Scheffler won at -20 in 2024. If the wind howls like it did during the 2007 Monday finish, -12 could take it.

Check the weather forecast midweek before placing this one.

First-Round Leader

This is a pure value play. The first-round leader at The Players rarely wins the whole thing, but it's a fun bet at usually 20-1 or longer for the top names. Pick someone with Sawgrass experience who tends to start fast — McIlroy, Fleetwood, or Kim are all worth a look.

Our Card

If we had to fill out one Players Championship betting card:

The Real Pick

Watch the tournament. That's the best bet of the week. The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is the most entertaining non-major event in golf, and next week's edition has storylines everywhere — Scheffler's three-peat bid, McIlroy's title defense, Koepka's return, and the island green waiting to ruin someone's Sunday.

Crack a beer. Find a comfortable couch. And try not to hold your breath every time someone stands on the 17th tee.

You will anyway.

The Players Championship 2026 runs March 12-15 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. Check out our Bet Calculator to figure out your potential payouts.

updatedAt: "2026-03-15"

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